A Multi-Client Study Proposal
China's Growing Appetite for Meats: Implications for World Meat Trade
China is by far the world’s largest producer and
consumer of meats. Historically, this situation did not have a large impact
on the rest of the world, as China, for the most part, maintained self
sufficiency in meats. However, since 2007 the situation has changed
dramatically. China has gradually turned into a net importer of meats.
Now, the question becomes: Are China’s meat imports
a short-term phenomenon due to a temporary supply disruption or the start of a
long-term trend? China’s growing meat demand has the potential to change global
meat and feed balances fundamentally. This study, undertaken in partnership with
National Grain and Oils Information Center of China (NGOIC), will carefully and thoroughly
evaluate all aspects of the outlook for China’s meat supply and demand.
■ How will
urbanization progress in China, and how will meat consumption patterns evolve
along with urbanization?
With strong economic growth, China’s urbanization
has been occurring at a much faster pace than commonly understood. By the end of
2011, the urban population for the first time exceeded the rural population,
reaching 51.3 percent of the total population. If rural migrants working in
urban areas are included, the population working and living in urban areas
accounted for about 70 percent of the total population. Urbanization and rising
purchasing power have led to a dietary pattern change from traditional food
grain products to more meat.
Will commercial livestock production expand fast enough to compensate for
declining backyard production and growing demand, or will China have to rely on
imports to meet its meat demands?
As most rural residents in their 20s through 40s
migrated into urban areas looking for betterpaying jobs, only grandparents and
grandchildren stayed in their rural homes to manage livestock production. With
the migrants sending more money home, the incentives for increasing livestock
production declined, and many backyard operations ceased to exist.
With limited land and water resources, can China continue to maintain its
self-sufficiency in grains and meat production over the next decade?
China is using 7 percent of global arable land and 6
percent of global water resources to feed about 20 percent of the world’s
population. Feed consumption has been growing rapidly over the past decade.
China’s actual meat output overstated in government statistics, or is feed grain
Many people are puzzled by the imbalance between
China’s feed grain supply and total meat output. It appears as though China’s
feed grain output cannot support the total meat output reported by the Chinese
commercial operations quickly displacing backyard operations in China, will this
add more stress to China’s already very tight feed grain supplies and meat
Traditional livestock and poultry backyard
operations utilized a huge amount of feed ingredients other than grains, such as
table scraps, brans, stems, leaves, vines and other products unsuitable for
human consumption. This was done to raise animals at low cost. It is estimated
that these non-grain feed ingredients accounted for about 60 million metric tons
of feed grain equivalent in livestock and poultry usage. Since commercial
production emphasizes greater feeding efficiency, most commercial livestock and
poultry operations only use feed grains and protein meal.
is China’s cold storage chain developing, and will it be able to accommodate
large meat imports?
Previously, China’s dominant meat marketing channel
was the wet markets, which typically do not have cold storage systems and mainly
sell fresh meat. However, due to environmental and food safety concerns, in
recent years the Chinese government has been pushing to deploy cold chain
systems in large metropolitan areas to market chilled or frozen meat to
residents. The consolidation of the meatpacking industry also calls for the
quick development of the cold chain system. The study will provide an overview
of the existing cold chain system and the industry’s plans for future
policies will shape China’s future meat complex import program?
This study will thoroughly examine the Chinese
government’s past policies and their impacts on meat supply and trade; profile
government branches and agencies that regulate the industry; and discuss new
policy initiatives and their implications. China’s Growing Appetite for Meats:
Implications for World Meat Trade April 2012
■ Will the
state rely more on the domestic market or imports for its reserves program in
After 2007, the government realized the
importance of building strategic meat reserves and established a small meat
reserve program. It is expected that the Chinese government will increase the
state reserve’s capability by intervening in China’s meat market in the future.
■ With the
increasing demand for meats and constrained supply of feed ingredients, will the
Chinese government be more open to importing feed ingredients in order to
maintain selfsufficiency in meats, or will it allow greater meat imports to
reduce its reliance on feed ingredient imports?
Within the context of the Chinese economy, this
trade-off (i.e., import meat or import feed grains) will largely be a policy
decision. On the one hand, China has a demonstrated bias toward supporting
employment levels. The development of the domestic soy-crushing industry is a
good example, as China has gone to a system of importing the raw materials
(soybeans) instead of the finished products (meal and oil). On the other hand,
recent levels of meat imports suggest that there is a comfort level with
importing semi-finished goods that are ready for immediate consumption. The
answer to this trade-off question will have major implications for the global
The entire prospectus and
enrollment in pdf form
additional information or to enroll, please contact:
Dr. Bruce A. Scherr
Chairman of the Board and CEO
775 Ridge Lake Blvd., Suite 400
Memphis, TN 38120
|Mr. Thomas P. Scott
President and COO
775 Ridge Lake Blvd., Suite 400
Memphis, TN 38120